tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post1399621574402317003..comments2024-03-28T03:27:07.147+00:00Comments on VizWiz: Do PK decisions in the EPL even out? Fergie thinks so, but the data disagrees.VizWizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11408220384219218043noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-47153865804451549882012-04-25T09:47:05.265+01:002012-04-25T09:47:05.265+01:00Sorry, but your stats does not add to the evens ou...Sorry, but your stats does not add to the evens out debate. The only reason why you would expect everyone to get the same number of penalties if every team is equally good/likely of creating clear-cut chances in the penalty area. This assumption is of course absurd, and top four teams really do create more chances and spend more time in the penalty area and so it's expected that they would darkritualhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02131165237169071388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-17398944651373239242012-04-24T20:53:10.464+01:002012-04-24T20:53:10.464+01:00Thanks for the link 11tegen11.
Mark was the perso...Thanks for the link 11tegen11.<br /><br />Mark was the person that led me to the data in the first place. I love his blog.<br /><br />Wouldn't it be great if there were data about controversial calls and no-calls? Then we'd really be able to see if "these things even out".<br /><br />I again think that would be heavily linked towards possession and goal %. But then again, if VizWizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11408220384219218043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-60175417861508984972012-04-24T20:44:04.913+01:002012-04-24T20:44:04.913+01:00The article that you mentioned was written by Mark...The article that you mentioned was written by Mark Taylor, from the excellent 'The Power of Goals' blog.<br />Here's a link: http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/penalty-kicks-in-epl.html<br /><br />As pointed out above, simply plotting penalties awarded and conceded contains significant bias as team quality determines where on the pitch the majority of match events take 11tegen11http://11tegen11.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-54254620158441909872012-04-24T17:38:51.150+01:002012-04-24T17:38:51.150+01:00Simon, that makes perfect sense. Thanks for infor...Simon, that makes perfect sense. Thanks for informing me.<br /><br />It's interesting how PKs always spark debate. :-)VizWizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11408220384219218043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-14385130528184129572012-04-24T17:23:15.742+01:002012-04-24T17:23:15.742+01:00Andy, I don't know about possession but there ...Andy, I don't know about possession but there was a study recently measuring penalties against goals. Over six years of Premier League matches that showed that the percentage of goals scored by the home team was very close to the percentage of penalties awarded to the home team for each club.<br /><br />In other words, as na example, if Man U scored 70% of goals scored at Old Trafford, they Simonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-9683639979144162752012-04-24T15:57:52.096+01:002012-04-24T15:57:52.096+01:00Simon, that's my thinking too. It would be in...Simon, that's my thinking too. It would be interesting to compare this to possession percentage to see if there's a correlation.<br /><br />However, I would suspect that theory breaks down with Arsenal as they typically dominate possession, but they don't get the same penalties as Man U.<br /><br />My point, though, was that these things don't even out.VizWizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11408220384219218043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3998628784041768080.post-86442896062676146092012-04-24T13:37:38.802+01:002012-04-24T13:37:38.802+01:00Of course the top clubs get more penalties. They ...Of course the top clubs get more penalties. They spend more time in their opponents' penalty area so it is bound to happen.Simonnoreply@blogger.com