It’s hard to believe that I started this blog on August 13, 2009, 800 days ago (yes, I know my first post wasn’t until Aug 17).  The time has absolutely flow by and I’ve learned so much. 

For example, I’ve never shaded an axis in lieu of a color legend until today.  Heck, I never even thought about until I saw a bunch of vizzes on Tableau Public that were using this style. I’ve always included the color legends, but it’s really not necessary on a dual-axis chart like this with only two colors.  You might even call the use of a color legend chart junk in this case.

From what this viz tells me, I should stick to some specific topics if I want to drive traffic:

1. Sex
2. Politics
3. Cheating
4. Disasters

Does that surprise you?  It doesn’t surprise me since those are topics that generally dominate the news.

One final stat of interest: 90% of the total traffic to my blog has occurred since I posted this viz as part of the Flowing Data contest about STDs.  Nathan must be a pretty popular dude.

NOTE: The data and charts in this post are excerpts from “The Citizens Report on the Cobb County School District Attendance Calendar”.  There are limitations on the data, but overall I think you’ll agree that the School Board has made an incredible unwise decision to revert to the traditional school calendar.

Summary
The data shows overwhelming support for the Balanced Calendar by all stakeholder groups: teachers, staff, parents, students, and the community. The data points are:

• 2009 Employee Survey
• 2011 Calendar Survey
• Board Member Reports & Email Counts
• 2011 Cobb County Association of Educators Survey

The results of these four data points are remarkably consistent. When presented with the opportunity for a school calendar with a shorter summer and additional week-long breaks versus a later August start date and no additional week-long breaks, all stakeholder groups strongly prefer a calendar with a shorter summer and additional week-long breaks.

Across all data points the margin of preference for the Balanced Calendar is significant, averaging 76.1%. The support ranges from a low of 61.0% to a high of 88.2%.

Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS)
Grade Equivalency (GE) scores for Cobb’s third, fifth, and seventh graders had all been declining in recent years. However, for the first time since 2007, ITBS GE scores in Cobb County increased in 2010 in all of these grade levels.

End-of-Course Test (EOCT)
Results in ELA and Social Studies have maintained a slight but steady increase through the 2010-2011 school year. Results in Science showed a slight decrease in 2010-2011, returning to their 2008 level of 71% meeting or exceeding standards. After a 23% decline in 2008-2009, results in Math dramatically improved by 26% in 2009-2010. They continued to improve by another 11% to 75% in 2010-2011, reaching a level not obtained since 2006-2007.

Teacher absences
Absences down significantly YTD through March 2011 as compared to the last three school years.

This amounts to 15,008.7 fewer days teachers were absent in 2010-2011 versus 2009-2010 through March. This has two benefits. The first is the direct benefit of lower expenses for substitute teachers. Specifically, the direct financial savings are $1,118,381.26 YTD through March 2011, due to lower expenses for substitute teachers. Second, our students benefited by having their own certified teachers in the classroom more often.

Student absenteeism
Absenteeism was down 27,600 days in the first semester of the 2010-2011 school year (August - December 2010). This represents a decrease of 7.5% district-wide as compared to the first semester of the 2009-2010 school year.

Of 120 schools, 75.8% reported improvements in student attendance and 24.2% reported an increase in student absenteeism. As student attendance is the second AYP indicator for elementary and middle schools, the influence of the school calendar on student attendance is vitally important.

Student Discipline
Data available from the Georgia Department of Education (DIS010) through May 17, 2011 shows:

Once the year-end data is available for 2010-2011, the results will need to be adjusted for inclement weather days and the shorter 175-day school year. In total, these two factors should account for 3.4% of any decrease in student discipline.

I’ve previously published research regarding the Cobb County School Board’s decision to revert to the “traditional” calendar.  Much to the dismay of the board members, many of the parents have not let this unpopular change go away.

In a very rare move, the Cobb school board was called to testify in front of a grand jury to discuss the recent calendar decision and the board’s overall decision-making process.  The outcome/recommendation from the grand jury will likely not be known until early-May.

The remainder of this blog post contains excerpts from research conducted by a friend and fellow Cobb County parent with respect to academic gains achieved to-date under the “balanced” calendar.  View the research in its entirety here or see the bottom of this post.

In November of 2009, the CCSD approved a balanced calendar for a three-year period to begin in 2010-2011. The district committed to monitor the impact of the balanced calendar on key operational areas including student achievement.

On February 17, 2011, the Board of Education overturned this decision before the first year under the balanced calendar had even been completed, approving “traditional” calendars for the following two school years. Although this reversal was shocking, even more stunning was the fact that the board overturned its 2009 decision without honoring the commitment made to the district when the balanced calendar plan was established.

Because the 2010-2011 school year has not yet been completed, a full assessment of student achievement under the balanced calendar is not possible. However, the three assessments completed to date – The Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS), The Georgia High School Writing Test (GHSWT), and the End-of-Course Test (EOCT) – can provide some insight into the impact of the balanced calendar on student achievement.

The Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS)

Students are assessed in the fall on the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS). This is a norm-referenced assessment that measures student achievement in comparison to other students nationwide. Students in grades 3, 5, and 7 are tested in Reading, Mathematics, Language Arts, Science, Social Studies and Sources of Information.  Results include:

1. ITBS Grade Equivalency (GE) scores for Cobb’s third, fifth, and seventh graders had all been declining in recent years. However, for the first time since 2007, ITBS GE scores in Cobb County increased in 2010
2. In 2010, GE scores for third graders increased to 3.59, an increase of 3.5% in just one year
3. GE scores for fifth graders increased 1.8% in 2010 to 6.05
4. GE scores for Cobb’s seventh graders increased slightly by 0.6% to reach 8.05 in 2010
5. Percentile rankings for all three grade levels increased by 1.5% in 2010

The Georgia High School Writing Test (GHSWT)

High school students are assessed on the Georgia High School Graduation Tests (GHSGT) and the Georgia High School Writing Test (GHSWT). Most students take the GHSWT during the fall of their junior year and are required to pass the test to earn a regular education diploma.  Results include:

1. GHSWT results improved by 3.3% in 2008 with 95% of the students passing the assessment
2. Results declined slightly in 2009, falling to 94%
3. Results have increased dramatically in 2010 with a 4.3% increase to an all-time high of 98%

End-of-Course Test (EOCT)

All students take the End-of-Course Test (EOCT) after completing various courses in four different categories: English and Language Arts (ELA), Math, Science, and Social Studies. Results of the EOCT are used for diagnostic, remedial and accountability purposes to gauge the quality of education in the state and also count as part of the student's final grade in the course.  Results include:

1. Results in ELA and Social Studies have maintained a slight but steady increase through the 2010-2011 school year
2. Results in Science showed a slight decrease in 2010-2011, returning to their 2008 level of 71%
3. After a 23% decline in 2008-2009, results in Math dramatically improved by 26% in 2009-2010. They continued to improve by another 11% to 75% in 2010-2011, reaching a level not obtained since 2006-2007

Summary

Quantifiable year-to-date student achievement in the Cobb County School District during the first year of the Balanced Calendar can be summarized as follows:

• ITBS Grade Equivalency scores and national percentile rankings had all been declining in recent years but increased in 2010-2011 for the first time since 2007
• GHSWT passing rates had improved in 2008-2009 and declined in 2009-2010, but then they increased dramatically in 2010-2011 to an all-time high
• In 2010-2011, EOCT passing rates declined slightly in science, continued a steady increase in ELA and social studies, and continued to increase significantly in math

Of course, the results of only three assessments cannot definitively establish the impact of the balanced calendar on student achievement. Ten total assessments are published each year in the CCSD, and full evaluations of all ten at the end of the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 school years would have provided the most reliable gauge of the balanced calendar’s impact.

However, these are the only assessments that have been completed to date, and one thing can be said for certain. The balanced calendar has not had an adverse affect on student achievement in the Cobb County School District to date in 2010-2011. In fact, all indications so far suggest that the balanced calendar has had a positive impact on student achievement and is promoting improved results.

Today I presented the information below at the monthly Cobb County School Board meeting.  As some background, the previous board approved a three-year “balanced” calendar that provides more frequent breaks throughout the year.  However, a new board was “elected” (some ran unopposed) and they decided that, despite the overwhelming evidence in support of the balanced calendar, they wanted to go back to the “traditional” calendar.

Naturally, I used Tableau to analyze the data that was provided by the county itself (some board members were using their own data which could neither be validated nor would they share).  The key points:

1. The Balanced Calendar has resulted in a 26% reduction in teacher absences for a total savings of $987K. Previously when this data has been presented, it has not factored in the additional savings that result from a $10 decrease in daily substitute pay.
   
2. The Balanced Calendar has resulted in a 4.2% reduction of student absences, with over 75% of school reporting a reduction in absences.  In the past, analysis has not considered that there were 88 schools days in 2010 compared to 85 in 2011.  Another interesting fact is that a school board member reported incorrect information.  I corrected him.
   
3. Utility cost trends are in alignment with my costs at home.  My assumption, though likely too broad, is that my utility costs are in alignment with other residents of Cobb county.

The board is supposed to vote on the calendar again today or tomorrow, but I’m not holding out hope that the board members that voted against the balanced calendar will be swayed by facts.

I closed my comments with the following from Seth Godin:

Before we invest a lot of time in evidence-based discussions, please tell us what evidence you would need to see in order to change your mind. If the honest answer is, "well, actually, there's nothing you could show me that would change my mind," you've just saved everyone a lot of time. Please don't bother having fact-less discussions.